Commentary: Looks like Boris Johnson’s scorch-earth no-deal Brexit may be Britain's endgame
LONDON: Great britain was once widely seen as a model for others to follow. Merely it has now sunk into its deepest crisis in living memory.
At stake is not but whether the Britain crashes out of the European Spousal relationship without an leave bargain, but also how far a state once famed for stability and moderation descends into political civil war.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, seems determined to take the UK out of the Eu on Oct 31 at any cost. The chances of a cluttered no-deal Brexit increased dramatically on Aug 28, when Johnson moved to suspend the United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland Parliament for five weeks betwixt mid-September and October 14.
READ: Commentary: A Brexit madman or master bluffer? What's behind Boris Johnson's suspension of UK Parliament
It will now be much harder – but non incommunicable – for his parliamentary opponents to thwart him.
THE THREAT TO LEAVE WITH NO DEAL
Johnson claims that he wants a deal, but that the threat of leaving without ane is needed to strength the Eu to compromise. In his view, curtailing Parliament's ability to block a no-bargain Brexit was necessary to brand the threat credible.
It is not inconceivable that Eu leaders, who meet equally the European Council on Oct 17 to 18, might concord on a revised bargain that British MPs would so rubberstamp, for fearfulness of the alternative.
But Johnson's demands are extreme. In particular, he wants to scrap, not simply change, the "backstop" designed to go along the Irish border open – and to preserve the fragile peace in Northern Ireland – afterwards Brexit.
That suggests his real aim is to arraign European union intransigence for the failure of renegotiations and to provoke his parliamentary opponents into forcing a general election, for which he is already preparing with a blizzard of spending promises and catchy policy announcements.
In the election campaign, Johnson would accuse Parliament of thwarting "the will of the people", meaning the narrow 2022 vote to exit the EU. This tactic might erode back up for Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and rally most Leave voters under Johnson's Conservative banner.
With Remainers divided, Johnson might win the sizable parliamentary majority that eluded his predecessor, Theresa May, in the 2022 full general election.
PLANS FOR BREXIT'S PAINFUL Backwash
Merely for now, there is no democratic mandate for a no-deal Brexit. The 2022 plebiscite did not specify how the UK would leave; the Leave entrada but promised that doing so would be easy, painless, and by agreement. A no-deal Brexit would exist none of those things.
The government'south own planning envisages ports seizing upwards and businesses going bust as tariffs on UK exports to the European union go upwardly overnight.
Food, medicines, and fuel could run short. Civil unrest would be likely. And a painful recession would doubtless ensue.
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Worse, such an consequence would cutting the Uk adrift from its European neighbours. A post-Brexit trade bargain with the Eu, with which the UK does nearly half its trade, would exist postponed indefinitely; fifty-fifty starting talks would require Britain to consume the terms of the rejected withdrawal agreement.
Bad blood would as well jeopardise security and foreign-policy cooperation. No wonder The states President Donald Trump, who hates the Eu considering information technology enables Europeans to stand up to him together, is cheering Johnson on.
A no-deal Brexit also would exist painful for the Eu, and particularly Republic of ireland. The fragile eurozone economy, which already is grappling with Red china's slowdown and the uncertainty created by Trump'southward trade wars, could plunge into recession.
And given the express scope for European monetary or fiscal stimulus, the harm could be more severe than expected. How, and so, might a no-deal Brexit still be stopped?
BRINGING DOWN JOHNSON
Rebel MPs' preferred choice had been to laissez passer legislation instructing Johnson to seek a further extension to the United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland's exit deadline. They might still do so this week, or even just subsequently the October European Council meeting.
Merely the timing is very tight, and authorities delaying tactics could stymie the rebels. Moreover, Johnson might ignore such an education.
The EU could refuse an extension request. Or more plausibly, it might impose atmospheric condition on the extension that Johnson would reject.
The rebels' 2d option – a no-confidence vote – now seems probable next week. With his allies from Northern Ireland'due south Democratic Unionist Party, Johnson has a parliamentary bulk of but one.
And because his suspension of Parliament has outraged rebel Conservatives who had previously aghast at bringing down their own government, a no-conviction vote now stands a greater chance of success.
A TALL ORDER IF JOHNSON GOES DOWN
But bringing downwardly the authorities would not be sufficient to stop a no-bargain Brexit. The motley crew of rebels likewise would need to support the formation of a flagman government that would seek a Brexit extension, call a general ballot, and perchance as well legislate for a second referendum.
Moreover, Labour Political party leader Jeremy Corbyn, a hardline socialist and cupboard Brexiteer, insists on leading such a authorities. That would crave Conservative rebels, opposition Liberal Democrats, and also MPs who quit Labour in protest over Corbyn's leadership to rally behind him – a tall social club.
Alternatively, if Corbyn failed to muster a majority, he could requite Labour's backing to a caretaker government led by someone less controversial – but that is also unlikely.
READ: Pound slides on early election speculation, Brexit uncertainty
If an alternative government could not be formed within 2 weeks of a successful no-confidence vote, rebels would need to hope that Johnson chosen – and lost – an ballot before October 31. Johnson might calculate that it would exist easier for him to win an election before no-deal chaos materialises.
He has threatened just not withal triggered a pre-Brexit poll.
REVOKE NOTIFICATION OF INTENTION TO Go out?
That leaves the nuclear option of Parliament voting to revoke unilaterally United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland'due south notification of its intention to leave the European union nether Article 50 of the Treaty on European union.
This is the only cinch way to thwart a no-deal Brexit. But it would exist an incendiary move.
Many Leavers would come across it equally an anti-autonomous insurrection. And considering it would reverse the 2022 referendum result, such a stride would necessitate a new plebiscite pitching Remain confronting No Bargain.
With luck, Johnson's scorched-earth tactics will spur his disparate opponents into overcoming their differences to stop a no-bargain Brexit. Just whatever happens, the businesslike middle is being squeezed out of British politics.
Both hardline Brexiteers and diehard Remainers have rejected the but available exit deal. As each side ups the ante, Brexit is at present an all-or-nix fight to the death among absolutists.
Philippe Legrain, a onetime economic adviser to the president of the European Committee, is a visiting senior beau at the London School of Economics' European Establish and the author of European Bound: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Correct.
Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/commentary-looks-boris-johnsons-scorch-earth-no-deal-brexit-may-be-britains-endgame-292751
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